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　　前两家消费后第三家有优惠

　　本月原始：

　　因为Park Hill district的 theatre , pizza store和golf club的收入增加，所以某个投资firm准备在另一个地方建立相应的three new businesses。同时还配有一个special program：在另外两家店消费后，在第三家店消费可以获得折扣。By motivating customers patronize at these three businesses,the firm can maximize its return

　　考古：

　　V1 就是在park hill区的披萨店、电影院和高尔夫俱乐部过去两年发展很好，所以XX公司今年应该投资另外一个区的另外三家店，并且采取消费两家店可以获得第三家折扣的措施，可以让每个店都获利并且最大化回报

　　V2 The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm:

　　"Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases over the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o'-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return."

　　参考思路：

　　1. 错误类比：PH地区与I地区不同，在PH地区成功的business在I地区不一定成功，人口，habit等不同。

　　2. 因果关系：即使这三种business会成功，那么这特定的三家店也不一定能成功，还要看该店的经营、销售、服务等等。

　　3. 无根据假设：即使捆绑三个店，顾客也不一定会每个店都去消费。

　　4.Profit除了与销售量有关，与成本也有关，不能单纯因为去的人可能增加就认为profit会增加，还要考虑成本、折扣等等。

　　范文：

　　The argument states that if by motivating customers to patronize all three Businesses of Capital Investment, the profitability of each business will increase and maximize return for Capital investment.To achieve this the firm proposes to initiate a program where if a customer patronizes two of the Businesses , he will receive substantial discount on the third. However there are several assumptions that the argument is based on for which it does not give sufficient evidence.

　　Firstly, The argument assumes that people will not otherwise go to all the three places if they go to the two places. There is no evidence to support this assumption. For example, certain demographic groups may enjoy watching theatre, playing golf and may like to eat out as well frequently. They may not select two out of the three. So by giving them heavy discount on something that they would have anyways chosen may actually negatively impact the profits.

　　Secondly, the argument gives the example of the success of the three businesses in the Park Hall district. However it does not clearly state the reasons behind the success of the businesses there. It appears that Capital Idea selected these businesses to invest specifically for the unique combination which they found to be successful in Park Hill district. If this is the case then the three businesses are complementary to one another and hence they will succeed as a group. So there seems no reason to explicitly ask customer to patronize the three at the cost of a discount.

　　In conclusion the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reasons. It can be strengthened if more evidence is given to substantiate why the proposed program would work. Without these the argument remains unconvincing and open to debate.

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(编辑：马荟)