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　　贸易逆差

　　本月原始

　　报纸报道了如下信息：一个country of Seccar(大概这样拼)，为了减轻trade deficit，打算降低糖出口价格，its primary export。 降价就可以获得更大的market，挣到更多profit。(大一就这样，单词几乎都是原文的)

　　考古原题

　　The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine:

　　“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”

　　参考思路

　　1. 因果关系-错误因果：赤字与贸易进出口都有关系，只考虑出口不考虑进口不对。

　　2. 因果关系-忽略他因：在市场竞争中，不仅仅价格是重要因素，质量等也很重要。

　　3. 无根据假设：就算进口量保持不变或者下降，对sugar的需求也不会因为价格下降而dramatically increase，因为sugar是基本消费品，需求浮动不大。

　　参考范文

　　The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar- exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar's sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.

　　In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. The author's argument relies on the assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar's trade deficit problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchar's sugar.

　　In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address. First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we cannot assess the author's proposal.

　　In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.

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(编辑：马荟)