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　　商场扩大家居部门

　　本月原始原题

　　The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.

　　“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”

　　参考思路

　　1.调查置疑：A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend. 样本不足，三个月太短，不能统计出一个趋势。Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.

　　2. 错误比较-时间纵向：The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future. 过去不代表以后会一样。

　　3. 因果关系：三个月内的服装和家居部门收益变化可能是因为 (1)家具原材料价格上涨 (2)服装销售淡季 (3)竞争对手夺去大部分服装市场份额 等。

　　4. 无根据假设：扩大家具卖场一定增加收益。扩大家居部门需要雇更多员工、扩建仓库、提高日常维护费用，可能得不偿失。

　　5.

　　(1) local的report不能代表所有，不能根据这个就说服所有人改行投资房地产

　　(2) profit上升不一定sale上升，有可能成本下降

　　(3)只说了上升和下降，但没有说上升和下降的level，有可能上升下降都只有0.001%

　　参考范文

　　Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.

　　In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.

　　In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.

　　In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.

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(编辑：马荟)